Florida’s population continues to grow.
As more and more Americans move to Florida, the state’s population is expected to rise, but state economists predict that this growth will slow down in the upcoming years as the large number of people who have been moving there in large numbers age.
In a study this week, the Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research revealed that the projected population of the state in April was 22,634,867, up roughly 359,000, or 1.61%, over the previous year, according to a recent article by Ryan Dailey of Florida Realtors.
According to Stefan Rayer, director of population programs at the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, the number of people relocating to Florida from other states is “the highest number it’s ever been,” which contributed to the surge.
“The state’s population is still expanding rapidly. At the meeting on November 28 that resulted in this week’s report,” Rayer stated. “It’s been really impressively robust if you compare long-term averages, which have been just under 300,000, somewhat more than the year before.”
Most likely, a decrease in growth
However, population estimates for 2028 suggest that growth may start to slow down. It is anticipated that the growth rate will decrease to 1.51% in 2021, 1.37% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026, 1.24% in 2027, and 1.18% in 2028.
Even so, during that time, the population would rise at a rate of roughly 300,000 per year on average. In a note to senators on November 9, Senate President Kathleen Passidomo brought that to their attention, revealing plans to try to satisfy projected demand through systemic changes to the health care system.
In fact, according to our projections, during the course of the next five years, the number of residents in our community will increase by nearly 300,000 annually, or more than 800 every day. That would be equivalent to adding a city every year that is bigger than St. Petersburg but somewhat smaller than Orlando, according to Passidomo.
Examining the demographics of those relocating to the state is essential to comprehending the possibility of a decreasing growth rate.
According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, the age group of 60 to 69 represented the biggest number of people relocating to Florida from other states in 2022. People between the ages of 50 and 59 made up the second-largest age group that moved to Florida.
During the Nov. 28 meeting, Margaret Snyder, a representative of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ office, stated that those between the ages of 20 and 39 “have consistently not shown the same desire to move to Florida.” Snyder stated that although a shift may be on the horizon, inhabitants between the ages of 50 and 69 have been the main force for residents relocating from other states.
We have primarily depended on the elderly population, particularly those between the ages of 50 and 70, when it comes to domestic migration. We anticipate that in the coming years, these numbers will begin to fall, or at the very least, not expand at the rates we’ve seen over the past five years, as baby boomers prepare to exit this age group, Snyder said.
State economists predict that if that pattern holds true, the yearly growth rate may fall below 1% in the 2030s.
“As the last baby boomer cohorts begin to retire, the decade’s end will continue to represent a turning moment. After that, annual growth falls below 1.00%,” according to the report’s executive summary.
This article originally appeared on Florida Realtors.